Law of numbers

IT’S THE law of averages finally catching up with him.

So political pundits deemed the loss of Cong Tarzan Lazatin to Mayor Ed Pamintuan in the battle for Angeles City.

The defeat was due to happen after Tarzan’s unbroken election victories from the congressional contest of 1987 to the congressional elections of 2010 – a span of 23 years, interspersed with three elections as city mayor.

Tarzan just can’t go on winning forever. A loss is just bound to happen. That’s the law of averages. As it is generally understood to mean. But that which mathematicians would rather call an “erroneous generalization” of the law of large numbers, which goes thus: “the frequencies of events with the same likelihood of occurrence even out, given enough trials or instances.”

In cara y cruz, Rizal’s face has come up three consecutive times. The law of averages, er, large numbers, holds it’s the Bangko Sentral logo that’s due to show in the next throw.   

In Tarzan’s case the law of averages – we stick to this for uniform understanding – took the negative application commonly attributed to it.

As it did in the cases of the dynasties that came to some end – ignominious, rather than otherwise – last May 13. The Gordons and Magsaysays of Zambales, the Josons of Nueva Ecija, the Payumos of Bataan – all falling victims to the law of averages.

But the law of averages has some positive effects too. As in the case of newly elected Mayor Rene Maglanque of Candaba.

The perennial whipping boy in the fourth district congressional elections managed to snatch a victory this time – the law of averages finally catching up on him too – albeit in a different contest. But still, a win is a win made sweetest after all those losses.  

Akin to the law of averages in election application is the law of diminishing returns. Here is how it goes.

In previous senatorial contests, Loren Legarda had always landed Number One. This elections just past, she was a far second to topnotcher Grace Poe.

Same with Board Member Cris Garbo who has held a virtual Torrens title to Numero Uno in the first district, making him undisputed senior board member. My, in the election just past, newcomer – to the board – Cherry Manalo pulled the rug under Garbo. 

The case of Balibago Barangay chairman Rodelio “Tony” Mamac falls within the ambit of the law of diminishing returns too. Mamac ran and lost in the Angeles City mayoralty contest in 2010. Mamac ran and lost in his vice mayoralty bid in 2013.
Now, whether Mamac runs for a city council seat in 2016, or seeks re-election as barangay chair, the law of diminishing returns – in the hierarchy of local government structure, as well as stature – already has him covered.  

The case of Among Ed Panlilio makes the best illustration of the law of diminishing returns.

In the recount of the 2007 vote, he lost to Nanay Baby Pineda by over 1,000. If ageing memory still serves right.

In the 2010 elections, he lost to Nanay again by some 230,000 votes.

In the elections just past, he lost anew by over 382,000 votes.

Figurative and literal, Among Ed’s returns diminish after each contest he entered.    

Anybody out there now going to have the law of averages and law of diminishing returns repealed, like some bloke tried to do with the law of supply and demand?

How I miss Chito Bacani.