Lessons to wannabes

SO you are raring to run in the 2007 elections – granting that there indeed will be elections? Pause a moment and consider these random ramblings of a jaded political observer.
You have no money? Dream on running, even winning. It won’t cost you a thing. But never wake from that dream and live the nightmare of political realities here.
Even as a candidate, you have already been claimed by the voters to be their personal one-way ATM: no deposit required but ready to dispense cash anytime of the day or night, for their power and water bills; cost of hospitalization, expenses for weddings, baptisms and funerals, even birthday parties and fiestas; milk for their infants, tuition for their kids.
You have money? Use it wisely.
More than a year before the 2004 elections, Board Member Dinan Labung was already crowing that thirty grand – that’s 30 thousand pesos, dummy – was doled out daily to his needy constituents even before the cock crowed in the morning. Into the campaign period, Dinan upped the ante to 50 grand. Still, he ended up in the kangkungan.
A dilemma: Identified as a generous giver in elections past, Dinan stands to lose a lot of the ground he covered in 2004 if he tightens even just a bit his publicly-perceived-as-enormous campaign chest. Dati kang nagbibigay ng tig-500 daan, bigla kang magbibigay ng tig-100, magiging masama ka pa sa iyong binigyan.
The flash of wealth is more a liability than an asset. Still remember Don Pepito Mercado? Soaring in the people’s imagination as a mighty, invincible eagle in 1994, reduced to a pitiful pipit in the 1995 polls.
While it pays to be the official candidate of a party, especially the party in power, this is no sure-fire guarantee for victory.
In 1992, Boking Morales did the unprecedented: he was the official candidate of the two dominant parties at war for the presidency. President Cory Aquino and candidate Fidel V. Ramos of Lakas-NUCD graced Boking’s proclamation rally. At Boking’s miting de avance, it was candidate Ramon V. Mitra that anointed him as the main man in Mabalacat of the LDP.
Dr. Catalino Domingo of the NPC drubbed Boking mightily. Thereafter, Boking though has done more unprecedented things. Like four consecutive terms and still running.
Barangay chairmen are prized – and highly-priced – acquisitions in elections. But like the party, they are no foolproof certainty to winning.
In 2004, Andrea Dizon-Domingo thrice paraded before the members of media 28 of the 33 barangay chairmen of the City of San Fernando as her committed campaigners.
She ended third placer to eventual winner Oscar S. Rodriguez who had no one but Do Santos of San Agustin in his corner.
From organization, let’s shift to tactics.
The early bird does not always get the worm. Sometimes, because of his over-eagerness – read: gagad – he gets to be shot first.
“We support Dinan Labung – PAMCHAM” read a streamer somewhere near Café Fernandino.
In an issue of Sun Star Pampanga a photo of the streamer was accompanied by the strongest of denials from Pamcham. No, not in their wildest imagination do members of the Pampanga Chamber of Commerce and Industry collectively support Dinan. Neither as candidate nor as businessman, someone who looked like Jun Sula attested.
It would be good for Dinan to reassess this streamer mania. Friday last week in Porac, over a binulo-cooked lunch at the municipio, Bong San Pedro was telling Congressman Mickey Macapagal Arroyo that other groups carried in Dinan’s streamers were reported to be angrily disclaiming their purloined support of his candidacy. Bong identified these as the groups of women and the padyak-sikel drivers.
I could not help but note the presidential son who is Dinan’s purported patron shaking his head. He did express some concerns over his purported ward’s self-defeating projections vis-à-vis his perceived rival.
Contrary to expectations – mine – raised by news reports alleging Dong Gonzales’ as an anti-GMA conspirator, Mickey did not have any unkind words against Dinan’s rival. He even noted Dong’s strong support to GMA in 2004, tandemed with Loren Legarda not Noli de Castro though.
Rejoice Dong, you are not the devil incarnate you have been alleged to be in the Macapagals’ eyes.
Still on streamers. Plainly stupid are those blue and yellow “Gov. Mark Lapid and RENE MAGLANQUE one-on-one” linens posted at the entrance of cemeteries in Sto. Tomas, and I assume, in the other towns of the fourth district.
One, unlike other streamers, they did not carry any message for the occasion. Two, they did not carry any meaning at all. If they did, it’s all lost to me. Masyadong malalim. What one-on-one? Is Maglanque challenging Lapid for the governorship?
Opinion polls are another matter to take real care of. Believe in published surveys at your own peril.
So an alleged survey allegedly commissioned by the provincial government alleged that Congressman Rey Aquino leads Mayor Oscar Rodriguez 60-40 for the mayorship of the City of San Fernando.
So what’s new here? Oca never won in any published survey since he entered politics. Conversely, he has won all but one – 1992 – electoral contests he joined: 1987, 1995, 1998, 2001congressional races, and the 2004 mayorship.
Like Oca, another one who never won in any survey but won all elections he entered is Cris Garbo of Mabalacat – as Mabalacat councilor twice, board member three times and vice mayor once.
Surveys are meant to serve as campaign guideposts. Their efficacy for propaganda purposes – to gain some bandwagon effect – have long been lost because of surfeit and the incredibility of results.
Have you read of any published local survey citing its margin of error? If you have, did they tell you how they arrived at it?
End of lesson for now. Still want to run? More lessons next time. And it’s free.